Earth by David Brin http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/ Study of the predictions in the novel Earth by David Brin.<br/> Password is david dot brin en http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/feedlogo.gif PBwiki http://pbwiki.com/ PBwiki 1.3.8 support@pbwiki.com EmpoweredYouth http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/EmpoweredYouth email.hidden@example.com (Paul Whitby) Paul Whitby added EmpoweredYouth

 I think one of the interesting social predictions made in Earth is that of students getting "Self reliance" certified, enabling them to, for instance, self-prescribe medication. I really think there's something in this, and have certainly noticed myself that, at least here in the UK, over the past few years there's been a marked reduction in children's self-reliance - somethink I think that is to the detriment of them as individuals and to society in general. Typically this is an outcome of mawkish and hysterical press coverage of child abductions and the consequential parental fear over child safety.


 


]]> Fri, 27 Jun 2008 04:27:17 +0000 add Predictions http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/Predictions email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited Predictions Check
Environment
Population growth stabilising at 10 billion by mid-century
Subtle
Likely
]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:52:42 +0000 mod Predictions http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/Predictions email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited Predictions Likely
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Environment
Global warming and rising sea levels
Obvious
]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:51:54 +0000 mod Predictions http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/Predictions email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited Predictions At present there are 48 predictions listed
8 are confirmed
45 are likely
4 are Open
1 is unlikely
3130 are still to be assessed (but that needn't stop you forming your own opinions)
Undetailed Predictions
The following have been listed, and are still to be assessed. The page references, where they occur, refer to the Bantam edition (1994). Where they don't occur...well, if you know 'em, then add 'em! It will help when I, or you get around to providing the details.
To Do Purely mental control of electronic devices ( http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8826&print=true )
To Do (p107) Citizens catching news footage with personal cams: http://uk.news.yahoo.com/28042006/325/citizen-journalism-climbing-media-ladder.html
To Do (p418) PopulationGrowth
To Do (p141) LifeCaching: http://www.openthefuture.com/2006/05/alphatesting_the_participatory.html
To DoCompanies and amateurs collaborating in open-source innovation/c]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:51:31 +0000 mod PopulationGrowth http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/PopulationGrowth email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited PopulationGrowth _p 418_: Mantle* Plan-Forbes: 2.5 billion* World Watch: 6.0 billion* Rocks-Runyon: 10 billionThe Rocks-Runyon model has proven to be the most accurate one, in the simple sense that it correctly predicted that we could (with difficulty) feed 10 billion by the year 2040.
Status: Likely
Earth's depiction of a population stabilising at ten billion by the mid 21st century appears to be spot on, according to the latest estimates!
OfReality
...Of course, that's still a lot of people. people!
References
HumanPopulationGrowsUp Scientific American: September 2005
]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:47:51 +0000 mod PopulationGrowth http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/PopulationGrowth email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited PopulationGrowth *_p 418_: Mantle* Plan-Forbes: 2.5 billion* World Watch: 6.0 billion* Rocks-Runyon: 10 billionThe Rocks-Runyon model has proven to be the most accurate one, in the simple sense that it correctly predicted that we could (with difficulty) feed 10 billion by the year 2040.
Earth's depiction of a population stabilising at ten billion by the mid 21st century appears to be spot on, according to the latest estimates!
Of course, that's still a lot of people.
]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:46:23 +0000 mod PopulationGrowth http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/PopulationGrowth email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited PopulationGrowth * Plan-Forbes: 2.5 billion* World Watch: 6.0 billion* Rocks-Runyon: 10 billionThe Rocks-Runyon model has proven to be the most accurate one, in the simple sense that it correctly predicted that we could (with difficulty) feed 10 billion by the year 2040.
Earth's depiction of a population stabilising at ten billion by the mid 21st century appears to be spot on, according to the latest estimates!
Of course, that's still a lot of people.
]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:45:09 +0000 mod JunkYard http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/JunkYard email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited JunkYard (5) Freighters helped along by giant kite-sails!
http://ecotality.com/life/2008/03/21/kite-assisted-cargo-ship-successfully-completes-maiden-voyage/
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”predictions in Earth that have come true, and I thought I'd help add another one to your list.
You mention at one point that Daisy McClennon's income comes from digital restorations of old movies, and also editing some old "languid classics like The Terminator or Delieverence" into shorter films to fit the time spans of the modern person. So imagine my surprise when I found "The 10 Minute Theater" and its version of The Terminator.” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jazlLFg8cXk
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See a plan to create autonomous, extranational retreats for the rich, in the open ocean. http://www.wired.com/science/planetearth/news/2008/05/seasteading
And yes, this is reminiscent of the "Sea State" in EARTH.. though the version envisioned in that novel was propelled by the poor and disenfranchised, while this recent endeav]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:31:20 +0000 mod JunkYard http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/JunkYard email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited JunkYard Sorry about the self-plug, but "prediction markets" are suddenly hot and it'd be nice to have a place to point folks to!
In fact, "Other (non-EARTH) predictive hits" would be a great fannish thing for someone to do! ;-)
At the risk of repeating ourselves:
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EARTH also forecast a version of “augmented reality” overlays on the visual-real world, wusing “Tru-Vu goggles”... which appear now to be coming true. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/01/technology/personaltech/01glasses.html?ex=1367380800&en=ba7bf737e4faf952&ei=5124&partner=permalink&exprod=permalink
See also: “UK Officers Wear Brin's Tru-Vu Lenses.” http://www.technovelgy.com/ct/Science-Fiction-News.asp?NewsNum=834
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Other techie items foreseen in that novel:
(1) the “subvocal” input device is coming closer to reality, allowing mere nerve impulses sent to the larynx to be read and interpreted as speech. http://technology.newscientist.com/channel/tech/dn13449-nervetapping-neckb]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:20:15 +0000 mod HelvetianWar http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/HelvetianWar email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited HelvetianWar (It wasn't Brin, but Heinlein, writing even earlier, who predicted the election of an authoritarian religious zealot in 2012. It doesn't seem so far fetched in 2006).
Aside from the likelihood of a war on Switzerland, the feasibility of a Swiss Navy (and of a landlocked people becoming a maritime people) is an interesting possibility. As a general rule, the Swiss have proven capable and adaptable, so perhaps this is within their ability. It would be sad, however, to give up all those lovely mountains.
(... it would also suggest some *serious* melting of polar ice caps!)
In 2008, the Swiss people appear to becoming more rather than less open (see the recent poll rejecting a call to handle citizenship applications in secret). A Helvetian war is unlikely. However, the SecrecyUprising that led to it is another matter.
References
September, 2007: Swiss join UN's dirty cash battle. "Switzerland has become the first country to sign up to a global initiative to recover money looted by c]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:14:47 +0000 mod AllPredictions http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/AllPredictions email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited AllPredictions 'Earth' may be the densest source of Brin's predictions about what the future may hold for humanity, but it's hardly the only one! After all, it's nearly twenty years since the novel was released!
is new?) new?)(Append any general junk for this page at the bottom)
Sundiver (1980)
Sunghosts from SUNDIVER? The new computer simulations suggest that in the gravity-free environment of space, the plasma particles will bead together to form string-like filaments that then twist into corkscrew shapes. The helical strands resemble and are themselves electrically charged and attracted to one another. The computer-modeled plasma particles can also divide to form two copies of the original structure and even "evolve" into more stable structures that are better able to survive in the plasma. "These complex, self-organized plasma structures exhibit all the necessary properties to qualify them as candidates for inorganic living matter," said study team member V.N. Tsytovich of]]> Fri, 06 Jun 2008 07:06:05 +0000 mod AllPredictions http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/AllPredictions email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited AllPredictions UK Officers Wear Brin's Tru-Vu Lenses.
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EARTH portrays a character grabbing a file folder and pulling out a data sheet and feeding it into a "sheet reader"... a much more convenient for of storage than a spinning disk. Now see: Store 256GB on an A4 sheet Techworld Nov. 24, 2006 - New "rainbow technology" allows data to be encoded into colored geometric shapes and stored in patterns on paper or or plastic sheets at a density of 2.7GB per square inch and and then played back through a computer with a special scanner attached....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=6119&m=15453
: This is impossible, as some simple arithmetic will show. Assume 600 DPI printing, four colors of ink, perfect accuracy, every single droplet is a bit: 600*600*8.5*11*16/8 = 67,320,000 bytes or 67MB per letter-sized sheet, given ideal, impossible assumptions. "Rainbow" is a hoax.
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You mention at one point that Daisy McClennon's income comes from digi]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 07:53:22 +0000 mod ImagePlaques http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/ImagePlaques email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited ImagePlaques Prototype 'flexible' screen technology has existed for some time. Couple this with touch sensitive technology to allow annotations, and what more do you need?
The favourite contender for this idea is currently LED. However, OrganicLEDs (OLED) are also showing promise. A better match to what was depicted in the novel may be electronicink, which has low power requirements, but which is also very slow to refresh.
screen technology, which I gather is a major component of the cost of a laptop.
To technology. To quote from their homepage:
Pixel Qi has a new take on the future of the computing - it's not about the CPU or the OS - It is about the screen.
We We contend that new displays, with integrated touchscreens, and wireless capability are the future...
On Nov 24, 2006, TechWorld reported on "rainbow technology", which allowed data to be encoded into colored geometric shapes and stored in patterns on paper or or plastic sheets at a densit]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 07:52:35 +0000 mod ImagePlaques http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/ImagePlaques email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited ImagePlaques]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 07:49:44 +0000 mod ImagePlaques http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/ImagePlaques email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited ImagePlaques]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 07:49:05 +0000 mod ImagePlaques http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/ImagePlaques email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited ImagePlaques Prototype 'flexible' screen technology has existed for some time. Couple this with touch sensitive technology to allow annotations, and what more do you need?
The favourite contender for this idea is currently LED. However, OrganicLEDs (OLED) are also showing promise. A better match to what was depicted in the novel may be electronicink, which has low power requirements, but which is also very slow to refresh.
PixelQi, a commercial offshoot of the OLPC project, is investigating how to reduce the cost of screen technology, which I gather is a major component of the cost of a laptop.
To quote from their homepage:
Pixel Qi has a new take on the future of the computing - it's not about the CPU or the OS - It is about the screen.
We contend that new displays, with integrated touchscreens, and wireless capability are the future...
On Nov 24, 2006, TechWorld reported on "rainbow technology", which allowed data to be encoded into colored geometric shapes and stored in patterns on p]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 07:48:08 +0000 mod ImagePlaques http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/ImagePlaques email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited ImagePlaques ElectronicInk - How Stuff Works
AdiscussionofGraphicsTablets
First A4 colour e-paper unfurled#
FirstA4coloure-paperunfurled
]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 07:28:30 +0000 mod SecrecyUprising http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/SecrecyUprising email.hidden@example.com (arf) arf edited SecrecyUprising Reality:
Since writing 'Earth', Brin has expanded on this theme and the social issues involved in The Transparent Society. The general thesis is that technology is rapidly making privacy a thing of the past and that the best way to deal with it is to embrace it: watching the watchers.
In March, 2008, it was reported that the European Union... and especially Germany... is coming down hard on Swiss Banking secrecy.
“This land of stunning Alpine vistas, which has chosen to remain outside the EU, has always loomed large in the global imagination as the place where the wealthy stash their money beyond the tax man’s reach. The best estimates suggest that image is true, to the tune of $1 trillion to $2 trillion.”
Only now, the scandal that threatens that lucrative business began when German authorities obtained secret financial data from Liechtenstein, Switzerland’s tiny neighbor with similar banking laws. The information in hand, investigators fanned out across Germany to seize documents th]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 07:25:19 +0000 mod AllPredictions http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/AllPredictions email.hidden@example.com (David McCabe) David McCabe edited AllPredictions EARTH portrays a character grabbing a file folder and pulling out a data sheet and feeding it into a "sheet reader"... a much more convenient for of storage than a spinning disk. Now see: Store 256GB on an A4 sheet Techworld Nov. 24, 2006 - New "rainbow technology" allows data to be encoded into colored geometric shapes and stored in patterns on paper or or plastic sheets at a density of 2.7GB per square inch and and then played back through a computer with a special scanner attached....
http://www.kurzweilai.net/email/newsRedirect.html?newsID=6119&m=15453
: This is impossible, as some simple arithmetic will show. Assume 600 DPI printing, four colors of ink, perfect accuracy, every single droplet is a bit: 600*600*8.5*11*16/8 = 67,320,000 bytes or 67MB per letter-sized sheet, given ideal, impossible assumptions. "Rainbow" is a hoax.
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You mention at one point that Daisy McClennon's income comes from digital restorations of old movies, and also editing]]> Wed, 28 May 2008 22:53:23 +0000 mod Edited films http://earthbydavidbrin.pbwiki.com/Edited+films email.hidden@example.com (mysticwind) mysticwind added Edited films

Daisy runs a business editing films into much shorter versions to suit a modern audience.  This is reflected in the real-world present by the existence of digital fan edits, created to fix the flaws of films.


 


Source: http://fanedit.org/wpEE/


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